Essence of technical forex analysis.

Technical forex analysis can be generally defined as a method of forecasting prices, based on mathematical rather than economic computations. This method was created for purely industrial purposes, namely income while playing at first in the securities markets, and later in the futures. All methods of technical analysis created separately from each other and only in the 70s were integrated into a single theory with the general philosophy, axioms and basic principles.

Technical analysis - a method of forecasting prices with the graphs of market movements in the previous periods.

The practical use of technical analysis implies the existence of axioms.

Axiom 1. Movement of the market account for all (or rates account for all).

Any factor that affects the price (for example, the market price of the goods), - economic, political, psychological - is taken into account in advance and is reflected in its schedule.

Axiom 2. Prices move directionally.

This assumption is the basis for all methods of technical analysis. The main task of technical analysis is to determine the price trends (or tendencies or trends) for use in the trade.

Identify trends that gives the Dow, is as follows: when the rising trend (bullish trend) of each successive peak and each subsequent decline over the previous one. By other words, the bullish trend should be consistently with the outline of the curve rising peaks and troughs. Accordingly, the downward trend (bearish), each successive peak and decline will be lower than the previous one. Such definition is a fundamental trends and serves as a starting point in the analysis of trends.

There are three types of trends - bullish (upward price movement), bearish (downward price movement) and side (the price is almost not moving). All three types of trends are not in pure form, as the movement of "straight" on a price chart can be found very rarely.

The trend is valid as long as the files a clear signal that it has changed.

Axiom 3. History repeats itself.

Analysts have suggested that if a certain type of analysis worked in the past, it will work in the future, as It is built on a sustainable human psychology.

Technical analysis classified into two methods:

- Graphic

- Math - computer analysis.

Inflation indicators

The Consumer Price Index (Consumer Price Index - CPI) - that's the retail price index.
The index of producer prices (Producer Price Index - PPI) - the index of wholesale prices.
The more of these indices, the more expensive the national currency. Considered acceptable to the growth of these indices to 3% per year.

The monetary aggregates:
M1, M2, M3, M4 - MONEY SUPPLY - monetary support.
M1 - cash in circulation, bank notes and coins;
M2 = M1 + funds for the settlement and current accounts in banks, traveler's checks;
M3 = M2 + time deposits in banks;
M4 = M3 + valuable state documents.
The accelerated growth of the money supply, both in cash and non-cash, provide downward pressure on the currency.

Gross domestic product (Gross Domestic Product - GDP)
The higher the GDP, the better the condition of economy. Optimal change - up to 3% a year, if higher - the reverse reaction. Have to enter the higher rates, which will cause the appreciation of the national currency.
CPI and PPI are considered once a month, M / M.
GDP - Quarterly Q / Q and converted to year Y / Y.
Financial performance report (Treasure Statement)

1. Revenues and expenses of citizens
Personal income (Personal Income)
Feeling the consumer's willingness to spend money (Consumer Sentiment)
2. Construction Spending (Construction Spending)
Start of construction (Hosing Starts)
Appeal at resolving (Building Permits)
New home prices (New Houses Sales)
Current prices (Existing Houses Sales).
The unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) - is once a month. With increase in national currency depreciates.

Initial jobless claims (Imital Claims).
Ongoing treatment (Continuing Claims).
Increase in these parameters results in a cheaper currency.
Retailing (Retail Sales) - the better the trade, the stronger currency.
Dealer orders durable goods (Durable Goods).
All of this information is Moscow time at 16:30 and 18:30 (Reuters, CQG)

JAPAN
Japan's fiscal year ends on March 31. By the end of the year, as a rule, to take stock of balances transferred to a large amount foreign exchange in the yen, which tends to rise in price. Numerous insurance companies in Japan are the largest players in the market: USD / JPI, USD / DEM, DEM / JPI, CHF / JPI, GBP / JPI. The big problem in Japan is an aging population. Hold on for many years a small interest rate has caused distortion in the banking industry, but, nevertheless, Japan's banks remain the world's major banks. Strengthening South-East economy in the long term will give a chance to the yen to become the main currency for the Asian region.

GERMANY
In Germany a very costly annexation of East Germany (larger transfers from the pension fund, five undeveloped land and unemployment). Under Gorbachev, and later under Yeltsin, Germany issued a lot of credit to Russia ($ 30mlrd), so that any adverse political events in Russia cause a dramatic change in the course of the brand in relation to other currencies. Reports on the state of health of Yeltsin dramatically reduces the cost of DEM versus $.

FOREX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

The exchange rate impact factors reflecting the state of the economy of the country:
• Economic growth (gross domestic product, industrial production, etc.);
• The state of the balance of trade, the degree of dependence on external sources of raw materials
• Growth in the money supply in the domestic market
• The rate of inflation and inflation expectations
• The interest rate
• The solvency of the country and confidence in the national currency on the world market
• Speculation in the foreign exchange market
• The development of other sectors of the global financial market, such as the securities market, competing with the foreign exchange market.

Interest rates differential (difference procentnyh Rates)
JPI - 0.5% GBP - 6.00%
In view cennyh BUMAG:
T-bills (paper Treasuries)
USA - UK Bonds - Gilts
Germany - Bunds Japan - JGB
USA - Budget deficit negative
Japan - the budget deficit of positive
In Japan this razmeŝaet core assets in bonds USA around 60% to both Market.
Central Bank Rossii razmeŝaet approximately 80% MEDIUM FF rezervnyh also in bonds USA.

indexes
DJIA-USA Nikkey - 225 - Japan
FTSE - 100 - UK CAC - 40 - France
DAX - 30 - Hang Seng Germany - HK (Gong Kong)

The Dow Jones (DJI)
There are 4 of the Dow Jones.
The Dow Jones (The Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJIA) - a simple average of the movement of share prices of 30 largest industrial corporations. The Dow Jones is the oldest and most common among all indicators of the stock market. Its composition is not the same: its components may vary depending on the positions of the largest industrial corporations in the U.S. economy and the market, but in the present conditions, such cases are rare. In principle, it has to make up 15 to 20% of the market value of the shares quoted on the New York Stock Exchange. This index is calculated by adding up the prices of the included stocks and dividing this sum by a certain denominator (which is adjusted for stock splits and dividends in the form of shares representing more than 10% of the market value of the issue, as well as the replacement of components, and mergers and acquisitions). Dow Jones quoted in points. More recently, he appeared on futures contracts in Chicago.

Readymix Dow-Jones index (the Dow Jones Transportation Average - DJTA) - average component, harakterizuûŝij traffic prices of shares 20 transportnyh corporations (airlines, rail companies and avtodorožnyh).

Communal Dow-Jones index (the Dow Jones Utility Average - đưa) - Medium component motion Kursov shares of 15 companies, zanimaûŝihsâ gas - and Electricity supply.

Composite Index Dow-Jones (The Dow Jones Composite Average - DJCA) - component, sostavlâûŝijsâ the industrial base, transportation and kommunalʹnogo Indeksovo Dow-Jones.

The index of "Standard & pauerz" (S & P)
This index is published by an independent company, "Standard & pauerz." It is made in two versions - the shares of 500 corporations and 100 shares of corporations.

S & P - 500 is a market value weighted index of 500 stocks of corporations that are present in it in the following proportions: 400 industrial companies, 20 transportation, 40 utility and 40 financial companies. It includes mainly the shares of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, but there are also some stocks of corporations that are listed on the American Stock Exchange and over the counter in the back. The index represents about 80% of the market value of all issues listed on the New York Stock Exchange. This index is more complex compared to the Dow Jones, but it is also more accurate in view of the fact that there are a larger number of shares of corporations and the shares of each corporation are weighted by the value of all the shares in the hands of shareholders. Futures and options on it are sold on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

S & P - 100. The index is calculated on the same basis as the index for shares of 500 corporations, but is comprised of stocks of corporations for which there is a registered options on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. This is mainly industrial corporations.