Saturday, June 1, 2013

Inflation indicators

The Consumer Price Index (Consumer Price Index - CPI) - that's the retail price index.
The index of producer prices (Producer Price Index - PPI) - the index of wholesale prices.
The more of these indices, the more expensive the national currency. Considered acceptable to the growth of these indices to 3% per year.

The monetary aggregates:
M1, M2, M3, M4 - MONEY SUPPLY - monetary support.
M1 - cash in circulation, bank notes and coins;
M2 = M1 + funds for the settlement and current accounts in banks, traveler's checks;
M3 = M2 + time deposits in banks;
M4 = M3 + valuable state documents.
The accelerated growth of the money supply, both in cash and non-cash, provide downward pressure on the currency.

Gross domestic product (Gross Domestic Product - GDP)
The higher the GDP, the better the condition of economy. Optimal change - up to 3% a year, if higher - the reverse reaction. Have to enter the higher rates, which will cause the appreciation of the national currency.
CPI and PPI are considered once a month, M / M.
GDP - Quarterly Q / Q and converted to year Y / Y.
Financial performance report (Treasure Statement)

1. Revenues and expenses of citizens
Personal income (Personal Income)
Feeling the consumer's willingness to spend money (Consumer Sentiment)
2. Construction Spending (Construction Spending)
Start of construction (Hosing Starts)
Appeal at resolving (Building Permits)
New home prices (New Houses Sales)
Current prices (Existing Houses Sales).
The unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) - is once a month. With increase in national currency depreciates.

Initial jobless claims (Imital Claims).
Ongoing treatment (Continuing Claims).
Increase in these parameters results in a cheaper currency.
Retailing (Retail Sales) - the better the trade, the stronger currency.
Dealer orders durable goods (Durable Goods).
All of this information is Moscow time at 16:30 and 18:30 (Reuters, CQG)

JAPAN
Japan's fiscal year ends on March 31. By the end of the year, as a rule, to take stock of balances transferred to a large amount foreign exchange in the yen, which tends to rise in price. Numerous insurance companies in Japan are the largest players in the market: USD / JPI, USD / DEM, DEM / JPI, CHF / JPI, GBP / JPI. The big problem in Japan is an aging population. Hold on for many years a small interest rate has caused distortion in the banking industry, but, nevertheless, Japan's banks remain the world's major banks. Strengthening South-East economy in the long term will give a chance to the yen to become the main currency for the Asian region.

GERMANY
In Germany a very costly annexation of East Germany (larger transfers from the pension fund, five undeveloped land and unemployment). Under Gorbachev, and later under Yeltsin, Germany issued a lot of credit to Russia ($ 30mlrd), so that any adverse political events in Russia cause a dramatic change in the course of the brand in relation to other currencies. Reports on the state of health of Yeltsin dramatically reduces the cost of DEM versus $.

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